Chart of the Week: SONAR Truckload Rejection Index – USA SONAR: STRI.USA The SONAR Truckload Rejection Index (STRI), released only a few weeks ago, has already surpassed last year’s peak Christmas reading of just under 9.5%. Values above roughly 7-8% generally signal an inflationary truckload market in which capacity is insufficient. While this alone highlights the past year’s capacity erosion, the absence of the typical post-Thanksgiving lull is equally notable. It’s difficult to declare a definitive end to the prolonged freight recession given the seasonal context, but this is yet another indication that we are nearing a market inflection point — if not already there — driven primarily by supply-side reductions. Market turns are rarely identifiable in real time. Hindsight provides the context and distance needed to determine whether a move is merely a blip or the beginning of a full-blown transition. What this freight market still lacks, however, is the one factor present in every previous tightening: strong demand. While the recent surge in rejection and spot rates is both impressive and noteworthy, a seasonal jump alone is not enough to confirm a market flip. Demand throughout the months leading into the holiday shipping season was relatively soft. The SONAR Truckload Volume Index (STVI) — another recently introduced, expanded version of the Outbound Tender Volume Index (OTVI) — averaged 5–7% lower year over year through most of October and early November. The seasonal surge has outperformed that baseline, narrowing the annual decline to roughly 2–3%, but the improvement has not…
