Keeping global warming to less than 2C above pre-industrial temperatures is “crucial” for limiting damage to the Antarctic Peninsula’s unique ecosystems, according to a new study. The paper, published in Frontiers in Environmental Science, reviews the latest literature on the impacts of warming on Antarctica’s most biodiverse region. The Antarctic Peninsula is home to many types of penguins, whales and seals, as well as the continent’s only two flowering plant species. The study also analyses previously published data and model output to create a fuller picture of the potential futures facing the peninsula under different levels of global warming. Under a low-emissions scenario that keeps global temperature rise to less than 2C, the Antarctic Peninsula will still face 2.28C of warming by the end of the century, the study says, while higher-emissions futures could push the region’s warming above 5C. Limiting warming to 2C would avoid the more dramatic impacts associated with higher emissions, such as ice-shelf collapse, increasingly frequent extreme weather events and extinction of some of the peninsula’s native species, according to the paper. However, warming of 4C would result in “dramatic and irreversible” damages, it adds. Importantly, the paper shows that the outlook for the peninsula is “dependent on the choices we make now and in the near future”, a researcher not involved in the study tells Carbon Brief. ‘Alternative futures’ The Antarctic Peninsula juts northwards from West Antarctica, stretching towards the tip of South America. The region is made up of the main peninsula, which spans…
