Chart of the Week: SONAR Truckload Rejection Index, National Truckload Index – USA SONAR: STRI.USA, NTI.USA National tender rejection rates (STRI) have only declined slightly since peaking in early February, while dry van spot rates are rising again as fuel prices surge. The takeaway is that the truckload market may be entering the early stages of a prolonged transitional period, with additional disruption likely from seasonal factors and new regulatory pressures. What is a tender rejection? Understanding tender rejections is key to interpreting the truckload market. While spot rates tend to correlate with rejection rates over time, they are heavily influenced by sentiment and the transactional (spot) market, which accounts for roughly 15–30% of total volume. Like financial markets, there is a significant amount of price discovery involved. Tender rejections, however, are not subject to price discovery. They are simple electronic responses indicating whether carriers have alternative uses for their capacity. Unlike many 3PLs, which dominate the spot market, carriers prioritize utilization over margin expansion. When a carrier rejects a load tender, it typically means either they lack available capacity in the area or they have a more profitable opportunity elsewhere—often both. This makes tender rejections a stronger, more objective signal, as they reflect operational decisions rather than market sentiment. Not a weather phenomenon Weather can be a major disruptor in transportation, and it certainly contributed to the elevated rejection rates seen earlier this year. However, these events are typically short-lived. It has now been two months since Winter Storm Fern, and…
