The math doesn’t paint a pretty picture for restaurants. For every $1 increase in gas, QSRs can expect to see six fewer customers per day at the average drive-thru or a $22,000 annual loss, according to an analysis of 14.6 billion quick-service restaurant transactions from 2022 to 2026 across a wide range of QSR brands completed by Revenue Management Solutions (RMS.) RMS' Sebastian Fernandez cautioned that, while they don't have a crystal ball, they did model scenarios for an ongoing conflict predicting that if gas goes above $5 per gallon, they anticipate a three-percent decrease in traffic. Economic research shows that a sustained 10-percent increase in gas prices leads to about a five-percent reduction in restaurant spending, alongside a two-percent increase in grocery spending. In fact, consumers compensate approximately 70 percent of fuel cost increase by adjusting their behavior at restaurants and using more promotions at grocery stores. When gas prices rise, Americans don’t actually drive much less – they change how they eat. “When gas prices rise, Americans don’t actually drive much less – they change how they eat,” said Dr. Thomas Weinandy, Principal Research Economist at cash back app Upside. “Since drivers still need to get to work and pick up their kids from school, they end up paying the higher gas prices but then cutting back in other areas, such as dining in instead of dining out.” Higher oil prices do eventually impact food prices, research found, but the effect is modest and delayed. For example, a…
