Chart of the Week: Inbound Ocean TEUs Volume Index – USA SONAR: IOTI.USA Seasonality view So far, import demand has been a relative non-factor in the recent domestic freight market upheaval, unlike the previous cyclical tightening during the pandemic. That is not to say things won’t change, but let’s take a deeper look at how import demand has influenced surface transportation markets in recent years and consider how that applies to the rest of 2026. The Inbound Ocean TEUs Volume Index (IOTI) is a 14-day moving average that measures the volume of requests to move twenty-foot containers to the U.S. via ocean. It hit an all-time peak of 2,692 in June 2021. Its current value of 1,715 is well below that figure — closer to multi-year lows for this time of year than highs — but that does not necessarily mean demand is unhealthy. In 2024 and 2025, shippers were concerned about service disruptions and tariffs, leading them to order well ahead of expected fulfillment in what many supply chain professionals call a just-in-case ordering strategy. Using the inventory level component of the Logistics Managers’ Index, which measures whether companies are growing or reducing inventory, there have been two periods of strong inventory building since 2019. In early 2022, inventory levels grew at a record pace as demand waned and shipping networks became less congested, leading to a significant drawdown in late 2022 and early 2023. In 2024, shippers began to restock as conflict in the Middle East threatened maritime capacity and…
