Shippers could soon experience the most unfavorable market conditions they’ve ever seen, since transportation analysis firm FTR says surging fuel costs and a tightening freight environment have exacerbated its existing grim forecast for that sector.However, to achieve that milestone, sharply higher fuel costs also would have to reduce capacity and raise freight rates in the near term – not just spike fuel surcharges.FTR’s Shippers Conditions Index (SCI) was already forecast in the near-term to fall to its lowest level in four years. That outlook—which was locked in before military strikes on Iran—anticipated that the SCI for February would be weaker than January’s -5.0 reading, which itself indicated the toughest overall conditions for shippers since May 2022.The SCI reading of -23.1 in March 2022 is the lowest ever, driven by a still-tough truck freight market and, especially, what was – at least at the time – an unprecedented surge in diesel prices of $1.15 a gallon over two weeks.That record could soon be broken, as the current surge of more than 96 cents during the first week of March 2026 far surpasses the first week of the March 2022 surge, but obviously the performance of prices in the coming weeks is unknown.“We wanted to highlight the possibility that the SCI soon could indicate the toughest overall conditions ever for shippers, though the freight components of the index are not yet as tough as they were in early 2022. However, the freight market then had started to cool from 2021’s extreme situation…
