Showing signs of life after a three-year recession, the U.S. truck freight market showed modest improvement in shipment volumes during the fourth quarter of 2025, and tightening capacity drove shipper spending to its highest level since early 2024, according to the latest U.S. Bank Freight Payment Index.By the numbers, national shipments rose 1.5% from the previous quarter, while spending jumped 4.6%.”The capacity story is the defining theme of Q4. Shippers paid significantly more to move slightly more freight—clear evidence that available truck capacity continues to tighten,” said Bobby Holland, U.S. Bank director of freight business analytics. “Between fleet exits and carriers reducing their rosters, the industry is feeling the effects of prolonged contraction.”Compared with Q4 2024, national shipment volumes fell 4.9%—the 15th consecutive quarter of year-over-year decline. However, this marked the smallest year-over-year drop since Q2 2022. For 2025 overall, freight levels declined 9.9% from 2024, though this was less than half the 20.4% annual decline in 2024.Shipper spending rose 5.2% year-over-year in Q4—the first year-over-year increase in three years. Over the past three quarters, spending has increased 7.9% while shipments rose just 1.0%, highlighting the rate pressure shippers are experiencing. The spending increase cannot be attributed to diesel prices, which averaged 5.2 cents per gallon lower than Q3, according to Department of Energy data.Geographically, all five U.S. regions recorded sequential spending increases, and four of five saw year-over-year spending gains—another indication of tightening capacity. “Freight market conditions remained challenging in Q4, with manufacturing, construction, and consumer spending all showing…
