Rising gas prices (up 21.2 percent) led to a 0.9 percent jump in consumer price in March, a steeper result than February’s 0.3 percent, and the largest monthly increase since June 2022. Food prices didn’t change, but menu figures climbed 0.2 percent. Headline inflation hiked 3.3 percent, year-over-year, in March. That, too, was a sharp spike from February (2.4 percent) and the loftiest since April 2024. Dr. Chad Moutray, chief economist at the National Restaurant Association, said oil prices could retreat in the coming weeks if traffic flows to a near-normal pace in the Strait of Hormuz. “That outcome would provide welcome relief for consumers and the broader macroeconomy,” he said. “Coming into this year, there were meaningful expectations for strong economic tailwinds, driven by tax incentives and the prospect of lower interest rates later in the year, that would fuel growth,” Moutray added. “A de‑escalation of the conflict involving Iran would help put that growth narrative back on track, particularly in the second half of the year, even with hurdles in the near-term. Conversely, the longer the conflict persists and energy prices remain elevated, the more consumers will be forced to make trade‑offs in their spending, potentially weighing on restaurant traffic and sales.” Core CPI, a measure that excludes food and energy, increased 0.2 percent in March for the second consecutive month. Core inflation inched from 2.6 percent year-over-year to 2.6 percent. For a larger picture, some increases included apparel (1 percent), transportation services (0.6 percent), shelter (0.3 percent),…
